World Cup 2026 Group I predictions: Norway or Senegal for 2nd?
Group I has some real heavyweights in it. France have featured in the past two World Cup Finals and have arguably the most talented side in the competition. Norway are a side on the rise and boast the most terrifying goal scorer on the planet. Senegal arrive as No. 15 in the FIFA rankings, while Iraq rounds out the group.
Group I odds at FIFA World Cup 2026
To win Group I
| France | -225 |
| Norway | +220 |
| Senegal | +500 |
| Iraq | +6600 |
To advance from Group I
| France | -5000 |
| Norway | -500 |
| Senegal | -275 |
| Iraq | +300 |
To win the 2026 World Cup
| France | +500 |
| Norway | +2500 |
| Senegal | +8000 |
| Iraq | +300000 |
*odds are subject to change
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Group I is made up of an interesting combination of teams. France are far and away the strongest nation in the group, and should have no problem finishing first. Norway are seen as the likely runners-up, and while they do have quality, there’s a lot of onus being placed on what Erling Haaland gives them up front. Senegal are in an interesting position, as they could push for second, while Iraq are likely to finish bottom.
FIFA World Cup 2026 Group I teams
France
FIFA Ranking: 3 | Manager: Didier Deschamps | Qualified: UEFA Group D winners
Two-time world champions France arrive in North America looking to avenge their penalty shootout defeat in the final at Qatar 2022. The 2026 FIFA World Cup will be Didier Deschamps’ final tournament as manager, so he will be looking to go out on top. The French are littered with talent at all positions, but it’s at the top of the field where they’re the strongest.
Senegal
FIFA Ranking: 15 | Coach: Pape Thiaw | Qualified: CAF Group B winners
Senegal will be playing in their fourth World Cup this summer, with Pape Thiaw the man to lead the team after replacing Aliou Cisse in 2024. Senegal continue to be reliant on their more experienced stars, with Kalidou Koulibaly and Sadio Mane the two standout names. Nicolas Jackson of Bayern Munich provides the firepower through the middle.
Norway
FIFA Ranking: 31 | Manager: Stale Solbakken | Qualified: UEFA Group I winners
Norway return to the World Cup for the first time since 1998. They enjoyed a fantastic qualifying campaign, with striker Erling Haaland as deadly in attack as ever. The competition is Haaland’s first major tournament at the senior international level. Norway can also call on the likes of captain Martin Odegaard, now a Premier League champion, Alexander Sorloth and Jorgen Strand Larsen.
Iraq
FIFA Ranking: 56 | Nanager: Graham Arnold | Qualified: Inter-confederation playoff Path 2 winner
It’s been 40 years since Iraq qualified for a World Cup. Graham Arnold, who led Australia to the round of 16 at Qatar 2022, is tasked with managing them at the tournament. They’re the weakest team in the group, but players like striker Ali Al-Hamadi of Luton Town and Venezia’s Marko Farji will give it their best shot.
Players to Watch in Group I
- Kylian Mbappe (France) Mbappe, 27, may not have won trophies with Real Madrid this season, but he’s scored plenty of goals. He captains France and was the Golden Boot winner at Qatar 2022. Alongside Ousmane Dembele, he’s the most dangerous player in Group I, and he’ll be looking to demonstrate that on the pitch.
- Erling Haaland (Norway) Norway have a genuine world-class player on their hands in the 25-year-old Manchester City striker. He’s capable of scoring against anyone, and any success Norway have will be dependent on his performance. If the supply is there, expect him to score plenty.
- Sadio Mane (Senegal) He may recently have turned 34, but he’s still Senegal’s star player. Mane has enjoyed a title-winning season with Al-Nassr in the Saudi Pro League and will want to end his international career on a high this summer.
- Aymen Hussein (Iraq) He’s scored 32 goals in 89 caps for his country and is expected to lead the line for Iraq. His physicality and experience will, at the very least, give France, Senegal and Norway something to think about.
- Martin Odegaard (Norway) The 27-year-old is Norway’s captain, Arsenal’s captain and now a Premier League champion. His experience will be key, but so will his ability to find Haaland. If that happens, Norway have a real chance of doing well.
Young talents in Group I
- Warren Zaire-Emery (France) The 20-year-old PSG midfielder will make his World Cup debut and is the youngest player on Deschamps’ squad.
- Antonio Nusa (Norway) The winger, 21, who plays in the Bundesliga for RB Leipzig, will be tasked with getting the ball into the box for Haaland.
- Assane Diao (Senegal) A 20-year-old winger who just helped Serie A’s Como qualify for the Champions League.
Group I qualification scenarios: Who goes through?
France are expected to win the group, and they should do so without too many problems based on what their odds tells us. It’s the race for second that’s interesting. Many are expecting Norway to do well, but it really is dependent on how Haaland performs. Senegal have tournament experience and, if Haaland isn’t on fire, they could finish runners-up.
Potential Round of 32 Matchups for Group I Teams
The team that wins Group I will face the third-placed nation from Group C, D, F, G or H in the Round of 32. The runner-up from Group I will take on the runner-up of Group E. If a third team qualifies from Group I, they’ll play the winner of Group H.
Group I Schedule for FIFA World Cup 2026
Round 1 matches
June 16 – France vs. Senegal | New Jersey
France will be keen to get off to a winning start and have the quality to do so. However, Senegal will be no pushover, and they have the physical attributes to cause problems for the French. France remain favourites at -213. Senegal are +600 to win. The draw is +333.
June 16 – Iraq vs. Norway | Boston
This will be Norway and Haaland’s chance to make a statement. It’s their first World Cup appearance since 1998, and it should be one they win convincingly, with Haaland almost certain to get on the scoresheet. Norway are -450 to win. Iraq to pull off a shock is +1200, with the draw +533.
Round 2 matches
June 22 – France vs. Iraq | Philadelphia
France will have way too much quality for Iraq and should cruise to a comfortable win. It will be interesting to see if Deschamps rotates his team for this one ahead of the clash against Norway. Either way, a France win remains short at -800, the draw is +750, and an Iraq stunner is +2000.
June 22 – Norway vs. Senegal | New Jersey
This match is likely to decide second place. The combination of Odegaard and Haaland could prove too much for Koulibaly and the rest of the defence. Norway start as favourites at +108. Senegal are +240 to win. The draw is +260.
Round 3 matches
June 26 – Norway vs. France | Boston
June 26 – Senegal vs Iraq | Toronto
The final round could be interesting if qualification is secured for both France and Norway. Senegal will likely beat Iraq to lock in third, hoping to go through as one of the best third-place finishers.
Past 5 matches for Group I teams
France: Lost 2-1 to Ivory Coast, Defeated Colombia 3-1 and Brazil 2-1 (all friendlies). Defeated Azerbaijan 3-1 and Ukraine 4-0 (World Cup qualifying).
Senegal: Lost 3-2 to the U.S., Beat Gambia 3-1 and Peru 2-0 (all friendlies). Lost 3-0 to Morocco and beat Egypt 1-0 (Africa Cup of Nations).
Norway: Drew 1-1 with Morocco, beat Sweden 3-1, tied 0-0 with Switzerland and lost 2-1 to the Netherlands (all friendlies). Defeated Italy 4-1 (World Cup qualifying).
Iraq: Tied Spain 1-1 and defeated Andorra 1-0 (friendlies). Beat Bolivia 2-1 and UAE 2-1, and drew with UAE 1-1 (World Cup qualifying).
Group I head-to-head history
France vs. Senegal: Their one meeting was at FIFA World Cup 2002, where Senegal won 1-0.
France vs. Norway: Have played each other a total of 16 times going back to 1922, but not for more than 20 years. The last game was a 2004 friendly in which France won 4-0.
France vs Iraq: Have never met.
Norway vs. Senegal: Met once in a 2006 friendly, a 2-1 Senegal win.
Norway vs. Iraq: Have never met.
Senegal vs. Iraq: Have never met.
Group I thrillers: Matches we’ll never forget
Senegal vs. France, 2002 World Cup The opening match of the 2002 World Cup and the tournament’s greatest upset. Senegal, making their debut at the tournament, defeated reigning champions France 1-0 thanks to a goal from Papa Bouba Diop. France were eliminated in the group stage.
Norway vs. Brazil, 1998 World Cup In the last World Cup they played at, Norway famously defeated Brazil 2-1 in the final group game, with goals from Tore Andre Flo and Kjetil Rekdal. Brazil may already have been through, but it was still a statement win for the Lions.
Qualification analysis: The “Best 3rd Place” factor
The expanded format of the 2026 World Cup means that the eight best third-placed teams will also advance to the Round of 32, alongside the teams that finish first and second in their groups. Senegal will likely be left hoping they’ve done enough to secure qualification in third, with France and Norway the probable top two.
FAQ about World Cup Group I
1 Which teams are in Group I?
France, Senegal, Norway and Iraq.
2 Which team is favoured to win Group I?
France are the favourites to win Group I.
3 Who are the players to watch in Group I?
Kylian Mbappe (France), Erling Haaland (Norway), Sadio Mane (Senegal) and Aymen Hussein (Iraq).
4 When do Group I games start?
Group I games get underway on June 16 at 3:00 p.m. Et with France vs. Senegal.
5 Where will Group I will play?
Toronto, Boston, Philadelphia and New Jersey.
6 How many teams advance from Group I?
The teams that finish first and second in Group I will automatically advance. A third-place finish is also a possible route into the next round.
7 Who is FIFA's highest-ranked side in Group I?
France are ranked No. 3 by FIFA.
8 What are the Top 3 bets to use on Group I?
France to win the World Cup based on their quality. Erling Haaland is good value to win the Golden Boot. And Norway to reach the quarterfinals or semifinals.
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