Just when you thought the Toronto Blue Jays were out of the playoff picture, the team gets back on track and is back in the AL Wildcard hunt. The path to October baseball remains far from certain, let alone a return to the World Series, but the team is certainly no longer an afterthought for the AL Playoffs. 

With the 2026 MLB regular season reaching its final stretch, Toronto is in a heated race for the final AL Wildcard spot. Let’s take a look at what the odds are that the Toronto Blue Jays can make this year’s MLB playoffs. 

What Are the Odds of the Blue Jays Making the Playoffs?

As of August 24th, the Blue Jays have a record of 64-69, which puts them two games back of the final AL Wildcard spot currently held by the Cleveland Guardians. The Jays are in a crowded group competing with the Houston Astros, Minnesota Twins, Baltimore Orioles, and Seattle Mariners for that last playoff spot. 

According to the MLB stat site FanGraphs, the projected odds for the Blue Jays to make the postseason are a little less than 20%. This puts the Blue Jays as an underdog to make the playoffs, but of course, this is a position that they have thrived in before. 

Blue Jays Chances of Making the Playoffs

Some strong recent play has helped improve the chances for Toronto to make the MLB playoffs. A month or two ago, the Jays were completely counted out, but a recent run where Toronto has won six of its past seven series dating back to the end of July has turned the tables. 

The remaining regular season schedule could also work in Toronto’s favour. The Jays have the second-easiest remaining schedule in the MLB, providing them an opportunity to make up some more ground in the AL Wildcard race. 

But winning those games is far from a sure thing, especially with how Toronto has played this year. The team hasn’t been consistent, particularly when it comes to star first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr., who has yet to hit a home run at Rogers Centre in 2026. 

Can the Blue Jays Still Make the Playoffs?

Absolutely. The Blue Jays’ chance of making the playoffs is not dependent on winning the AL East division, but with three Wildcard positions available, Toronto can make the MLB playoffs, even if they have a losing record. 

There is still plenty of baseball to be played, and a strong September could dramatically change the fortunes of the Blue Jays. The good thing is the team was here last season and now has playoff experience to draw upon for important games. 

For Canadian baseball fans and bettors, the Blue Jays remain one of the more intriguing teams to watch over the final weeks of the regular season. Their playoff chances are far from guaranteed, but with a favourable remaining schedule and a crowded Wild Card race, Toronto still has a realistic path to October, and once they make the playoffs, anything can happen!

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Feature image courtesy of The Canadian Press/Sammy Kogan via Canadian Press Images.
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