Stanley Cup Final odds, stats, picks
The 2026 Stanley Cup Final could be Mitch Marner’s time to shed some demons and shut up some detractors. If he hasn’t already.
When the Carolina Hurricanes host Marner, the betting favourite to win playoff MVP right now, and the Vegas Golden Knights for Game 1 Tuesday at 8:00 p.m. ET, it’ll something of a surprise.
That’s not because Carolina is here. The Hurricanes were at or near the top of the Eastern Conference standings all season and finished with its best record. Since, they’ve been a machine in the playoffs, going 12-1; dominating Ottawa, Philly and Montreal with a relentless attack and ridiculous possession numbers. There’s a reason they’re the favourite.
Vegas, conversely, had a tough regular season. They made a coaching change with just eight games to play in the season and barely eked out a Pacific Division title in what Connor McDavid called a “pillow fight.” Their record would have missed the playoffs in the East.
But they’ve hit another gear in the playoffs, going 12-4, including a sweep of Colorado that shocked the hockey world. Team defence, great goaltending, some world-class individual skill and scoring depth have got the Golden Knights to the final. Those are the ingredients for a Stanley Cup title.
Road to the Stanley Cup Final: How Carolina and Vegas advanced
Hurricanes and Golden Knights playoff comparison
| Team | Record | Opponents | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% | 5v5 xGF% |
| Carolina | 12-1 | OTT, PHI, MTL | 3.23 | 1.62 | 12.5 | 92.5 | 60.69 |
| Vegas | 12-4 | UTA, ANA, COL | 3.63 | 2.38 | 23.9 | 87.5 | 50.40 |
Carolina’s playoff profile is built on control: 33.7 shots per game and just 22.3 against. It has stifled the competition with a swarming team defence, particularly in the conference final against Montreal.
Vegas has scored more per game in the playoffs, and its power play numbers stand out versus Carolina’s. But it has been outshot on average, 27.0 to 29.8. That being said, the Golden Knights have been getting better overall with each round.
Both teams are deep and can roll four lines. The Golden Knights have more star power, but the Hurricanes have been getting scoring from down the lineup. There really isn’t much light between these two teams, and that makes for some intriguing sports betting options.
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Odds to win the Stanley Cup
| Carolina Hurricanes | -159 |
| Vegas Golden Knights | +125 |
*Odds subject to change
Odds to win the Conn Smythe Trophy
| Player | Odds |
| Mitch Marner, W, VGK | +165 |
| Frederik Andersen, G, CAR | +250 |
| Taylor Hall, W, CAR | +650 |
| Logan Stankoven, C, CAR | +900 |
| Jack Eichel, C, VGK | +900 |
| Carter Hart, G, VGK | +1400 |
*Odds subject to change
The leading scorer often has the leg up on the competition, and that’s the case here for Marner. So far, it’s a two-horse race, but that can change quickly. Eichel looks like a good value play.
Tactical battles that could decide the 2026 Stanley Cup
Carolina’s forecheck
The Hurricanes want to make every game uncomfortable for their opponent. Rod Brind’Amour’s team pressures early, hunts pucks in layers and turns offensive-zone time into cumulative damage. That showed against Montreal, when Carolina outshot the Canadiens 167-89 in the conference final and scored first in all five games.
The matchup hinges on whether Carolina’s forecheck can break Vegas’ exits before Eichel, Marner and the supporting cast can attack with speed. If the Hurricanes keep Vegas stuck below the dots, their depth can tilt the series.
The Vegas attack
The Golden Knights are more opportunistic than the Hurricanes. Under Tortorella, they have leaned into structure, shot suppression and quick-strike finishing. That’s not a huge divergence from hat they were doing under Bruce Cassidy, but ‘Torts’ has seemingly lowered the temperature behind the bench, and it helps when your goalie catches fire. Since he was hired March 29, Tortorella has led Vegas to 19 wins in 24 games.
The Golden Knights also have scoring depth Carolina has to respect. Marner leads them (and the league) with 21 playoff points and a 1.31 P/G mark, while Pavel Dorofeyev and Brett Howden each have 10 goals entering the final. Eichel sits second overall in scoring with 18 points.
Projected lineups: Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights
Carolina
Forwards
| Svechnikov | Aho | Jarvis |
| Hall | Stankoven | Blake |
| Ehlers | Staal | Martinook |
| Carrier | Jankowski | Robertson |
Defencemen
| Slavin | Chatfield |
| Miller | Walker |
| Gostisbehere | Nikishin |
Goalies
| Andersen | Bussi |
PP1
| Jarvis | Aho | Ehlers |
| Gostisbehere | Svechnikov |
PP2
| Hall | Stankoven | Ehlers |
| Blake | Miller |
Vegas
Forwards
| Barbashev | Eichel | Dorofeyev |
| Howden | Karlsson | Marner |
| Hertl | Sissons | Stone |
| Smith | Dowd | Kolesar |
Defencemen
| McNabb | Theodore |
| Hanifin | Andersson |
| Coghlan | Korczak |
Goalies
| Hart | Hill |
PP1
| Stone | Eichel | Dorofeyev |
| Hertl | Marner |
PP2
| Barbashev | Karlsson | Howden |
| Andersson | Theodore |
9 players who could decide the 2026 Stanley Cup Final
| Player | Key stat | Why that matters |
| Carter Hart | 2.86 5v5 GSAA | In 18 regular-season games, it was -2.26. He’s gotten hot at the perfect time. |
| Frederik Andersen | 852:08 total TOI | Well rested for a goalie who’s won three series. Hart has played 146 more mins. |
| Mitch Marner | 51.79 5v5 OZS% | For the playoffs leading scorer, that’s a low number, a testament to his 200-ft. game. |
| Jack Eichel | 4.8 Shooting % | It can’t last. His career playoffs mark before this year is 8.1. Most assists in the league. |
| Pavel Dorofeyev | 72.22 5v5 OZS% | With a shot like his (and 10 goals), getting him the puck in shooting areas is key. |
| Taylor Hall | 14 ES Points | Leads the playoffs. Linemates Blake and Stankoven have combines for another 23. |
| Jacob Slavin | 26 5v5 DZS | Leads CAR D. No D-man is counted on more for tough, defensive assignments. |
| Mark Stone | 35:51 TOI | That’s his total in the 26 days prior to puck drop. Vegas needs him healthy. |
| Logan Stankoven | 71.73 5v5 xGF% | All the “second liners” are above 70%, but he leads the team with 9 total goals. |
Stanley Cup Final injury report: Hurricanes and Golden Knights
Other than the usual bumps and bruises the playoff toll take, both teams are remarkably healthy for a Cup Final. Only Golden Knights depth forward Jeremy Lauzon listed as out. Captain Mark Stone is the one to watch for Vegas fans, and wince whenever he takes some contact.
Behind the bench: Rod Brind’Amour vs. John Tortorella
Brind’Amour has coached Carolina for eight seasons and has a 378-182-56 regular-season record, plus a 57-43 playoff record. He also won the Jack Adams Award in 2021 and captained Carolina’s 2006 Stanley Cup team.
Tortorella’s career resume is longer and more nomadic: 24 NHL seasons, a 777-648-37-166 regular-season record (Yes, that’s 37 ties. Remember those?) and a 68-68 playoff mark. He won the Stanley Cup with Tampa Bay in 2004 and is a two-time Jack Adams Award winner.
2026 Stanley Cup Final prediction
Both teams enter the serioes with a ton of momentum after dominating their conference finals. Vegas has the sexier names, but Carolina has smothered its competition like few teams in Stanley Cup Playoffs history — at 5-on-5, the Hurricanes have been nearly unstoppable.
But, the Golden Knights have climbed this mountain before, winning the Cup in 2023. A total of 12 Vegas players have their names on the Cup (some twice). Only Jordan Staal can say the same for the Hurricanes, and that was back in 2009.
Expect a chess match over a barnburner. These teams are too disciplined, too deep and too battle tested to let things get away from them; both know who they are and how they’re successful. Carolina grids you to death. Vegas will trap and counterattack.
If Carolina’s top line of Aho between Jarvis and Svechnikov doesn’t get going at 5-on-5, the Canes are going to be in tough. And there’s something about the Marner magic; he has the type of game-breaking skill Carolina can’t muster. Coupled with the offensive weapons around him firing on all cylinders, I’ll go against the odds here and say Vegas in six games.
| Feature image courtesy AP Photo/Mark J. Terrill via Canadian Press Images Statistics via NHL.com, hockey-reference.com and naturalstattrick.com. Line combos courtesy dailyfaceoff.com. |
2026 Stanley Cup Final FAQ: Start times, favourites, how to watch
1 When does the Stanley Cup Final start?
Game 1 is Tuesday, June 2, at 8 p.m. ET.
2 What is the last possible day for the Stanley Cup Final?
If necessary, Game 7 will be Wednesday, June 17, 2026.
3 How do I bet on the Stanley Cup Final?
Log in or create an account at ToonieBet, navigate to the sportsbook and follow the NHL link.
4 Who is favoured to win the Stanley Cup Final?
Carolina currently has the best odds at -159. Vegas is at +125.
5 Is Mitch Marner favoured to win playoffs MVP?
Yes. Prior to Game 1, Marner is +165 to win the Conn Smythe Trophy.
6 How did Carolina reach the Final?
Carolina beat Ottawa, Philadelphia and Montreal, going 12-1.
7 How did Vegas reach the Final?
Vegas beat Utah, Anaheim and Colorado, finishing with a sweep of the Avalanche.
8 Where can I watch the Stanley Cup Final in Canada?
All games can be seen on CBC, Sportsnet and Sportsnet+.
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