Shinnecock Hills Golf Club welcomes 156 of the world’s best golfers this week for the 126th U.S. Open Championship. The tournament has been played at Shinnecock four times since 1986, with the most recent winner, Brooks Koepka (2018), finishing at +1 and the low score being Retief Goosen’s -4 in 2004.

Shinnecock Hills statistical model: Why ball strikers are favoured

As the winning scores show, victory at Shinnecock is not so much about posting a low number as it’s about outlasting the rest of the field. This is a grueling test to say the least, which is why bettors should focus their research on these four statistics this week.

Par 4 Scoring Average (P4S)

Shinnecock is a long Par 70 Course, with 12 Par 4s averaging 455 yards.

Bogey Avoidance (BA)

Winning this week will primarily be a matter of avoiding mistakes, and giving up cheap bogeys will be detrimental.

3-Putt Avoidance (3PA)

Footage of the greens during practice rounds have looked ghastly, making strong lag putting a major key to victory this weekend.

SG: Approach the Green (SG: ATG)

The most important metric any weekend, but especially important when factoring in the difficulty of this course.

These following players rank in the Top 40 in those categories on the PGA Tour this season.

PlayerP4SBA3PASG: ATG
Scottie Scheffler 1st1st25th16th
Si Woo Kim2nd4th35th6th
Jake Knapp4th15th18th22nd
Jacob Bridgeman4th28th4th37th

This list is extremely brief compared to the 156 player field, so let’s add a few names who are truly elite (Top 20) in at least 3 of the 4 categories:

PlayerP4SBA3PASG: ATG
Kurt Kityama3rd17th74th8th
Matt Fitzpatrick10th3rd128th4th
Tom Kim17th8th81st20th

The achilles heel for our second tier is 3-Putt Avoidance. While Shinnecock is certainly not going to forgive a poor short game, a hot weekend with the putter could catapult these players into contention if the rest of their game performs as expected. 

The LIV factor at the U.S. Open

Thirteen golfers competing this week were not included in our data pool, due to a dearth of comparable data from the LIV Tour. 

Since LIV’s first event in June 2022 there have been 16 major championships contested, with two won by active members (Brooks Koepka at the 2023 PGA Championship and Bryson DeChambeau at the 2024 U.S. Open). While LIV has experienced a whirlwind year of uncertainty, the breakaway tour still boasts some of the best golfers in the world. And with the major pedigree of its top stars, we should absolutely not count out the likes of Rahm, who finished second at the PGA Championship last month, or DeChambeau, a two-time U.S. Open Champion.

Canadians in the U.S. Open field

There are four Canadians teeing it up at Shinnecock this week. None are betting favourites.

  • Nick Taylor, +15000
  • Sudarshan Yellamaraju, +15000
  • Corey Conners, +15000
  • Ben Silverman, +50000

Shinnecock Hills betting favourites

PlayerOdds to win
Scottie Scheffler+550
Rory McIlroy+1100
Xander Schauffle+1400
Tommy Fleetwood+1600
Matt Fitzpatrick+1600
Cameron Young +1800
Ludvig Aberg +2200
Russell Henley +2800
Bryson Dechambeau +3300

*Odds subject to change

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Scheffler U.S. Open odds boost

For those keen on backing the World No. 1, ToonieBet is offering a Golden Boost on Scheffler to win outright this week, taking his odds from +550 to +700.

Just navigate to the golf section of the sportsbook and select the Boosted Odds tab.

ToonieBet is invested in responsible gaming. Please play safe.

Scheffler stands out from the field

As we head into the third major of the season, the data is once again pointing to Scottie Scheffler, who continues to be the favourite in every tournament he plays. Ranking first in two of our key categories and no worse than 25th in the others, it would shock nobody to see him complete his ascension into golf immortality with a victory this weekend.

Looking past Scheffler down the odds board, the focus should be on golfers you can trust to consistently make smart decisions and minimize mistakes throughout the week. One or two spectacular holes is not going to be enough during the four-day grind at Shinnecock Hills. 

Enjoy the golf! 

Feature image courtesy AP Photo/Sue Ogrocki via the Canadian Press.
Statistics courtesy pgatour.com.

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