Why this is one of the most interesting Blue Jays trade deadlines in years
The Toronto Blue Jays have reached one of the most important trade deadlines of the Ross Atkins and Mark Shapiro era.
Fewer than 10 months after losing the World Series to the Los Angeles Dodgers, the Jays find themselves in a confusing position: not good enough to be buyers, not bad enough to burn the whole thing to the ground.
Toronto entered 2026 expecting to compete. After reaching the World Series in 2025, the Blue Jays added significant talent during the off-season, including starting pitcher Dylan Cease and Japanese star Kazuma Okamoto. Both have more than delivered on pre-season expectations, yet the Jays are closing out July last in the AL East, with just an 6.9% chance of making the playoffs as of this writing.
With the MLB trade deadline on the holiday Monday, Toronto’s front office is facing a couple of different paths to take: buying, selling or something in between.
Blue Jays futures
| To win the AL East | +24900 |
| To win the World Series | +9900 |
| Cease to win AL Cy Young | +125 |
*Odds subject to change
Toronto’s three possible trade deadline paths
The most obvious option is to sell pieces that are not locked in as future building blocks.
Sitting at 5.5 games back of the final AL Wildcard spot, the Jays have an uphill battle ahead in August and September. Keeping the core intact and building around Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (despite a horrible season to date), Cease, Trey Yesavage, Alejandro Kirk and Okamoto allows the team to stockpile some assets, while remaining competitive in 2027. Throw in a nice supporting cast led by All-Stars Ernie Clement and Louis Varland, and you can see why Atkins would be reluctant to blow this team up.
The next option is to buy in an attempt to make a push for the playoffs. At this point, the Tampa Bay Rays and New York Yankees are too far ahead in the division for the Jays to catch. If Toronto is really able to turn things around, the Wildcard spots are more realistic, although they would need to leapfrog six teams to do so.
Is it doable? There’s an outside chance, but at this point that seems more like trying to catch lightning in a bottle based on last year’s success rather than looking at the current reality.
This, of course, leads to the third and final path for the Jays ahead of the August 3 MLB Trade Deadline.
Sell, but also buy controllable players
The most logical (even likely) path for Toronto is somewhere between buying and selling. It’s generally accepted that the Jays have underperformed their roster’s talent level this year. Therefore, selling off pieces while bringing on controllable MLB players is a great way to rebuild on the fly.
Selling veteran contracts to contenders as rentals, while bringing in assets that can be dealt for big league players, is a viable strategy, and one this management regime has used before. Names like Kevin Gausman, Shane Bieber, Daulton Varsho and George Springer will be sought after by contenders, and would help the Jays reduce their payroll, something that will benefit the team during the off-season.
Let’s be honest: The area the Jays need the most help with is the starting rotation. If they can ship out some veterans while bringing back assets to deal for a name like Joe Ryan, Jose Soriano, Reid Detmers or even a Freddy Peralta, they’d be setting themselves up for a rebound in 2027 and beyond.
Ryan would be an ideal fit if Minnesota were willing to move him. The right-hander would immediately improve Toronto’s rotation while also providing team control through 2027 before they’d need to sign him to a long-term deal. Soriano and Detmers are in similar contract situations
Peralta is a pending free agent, but his stock is likely at the lowest it’s been in several years, so the Jays could be able to buy (relatively) low on one of the game’s premier strikeout pitchers. He may not make an immediate impact this year, but perhaps shifting from a role as an ace in New York to a middle-of-the-rotation guy in Toronto on an affordable contract would help him return to form.
The point is the Jays needn’t sacrifice top prospects for an outside chance of making the playoffs. If Toronto wants to deal from its farm, then target players like Ryan, Soriano, Detmers or Peralta, who could potentially help the Jays for years to come in a rotation anchored by Cease and Yesavage.
Which Blue Jays should be traded?
The Jays are known as a team that will work with players to get them where they want to be. That means that veterans, if dealt, will more than likely be given an opportunity to win with a playoff team, as long as the assets returning to the Jays can help the team. As much as possible, Toronto has a history of looking for deals that benefit the club and the player leaving.
If Toronto becomes a seller, Gausman will be at the top of the list. Despite being one of the best contracts that Atkins has handed out, the veteran righty is a pending free agent and the writing may have been on the wall when Cease inked his historic deal last off-season.
Gausman is no spring chicken, but the 25-year-old has a strong track record that would immediately add a boost to a playoff rotation. For teams not looking to pay up for a Tarik Skubal, Gausman could be at the perfect price point for a contender that doesn’t want to break the bank.
Outfielder Varsho should also be available. Like Gausman, he’s a free agent at season’s end. He remains a valuable defensive player, but his production at the plate has fallen off a cliff this year. After belting 20 home runs in just 72 games last season, Varsho has just seven this year in 92 appearances. As a result, his OPS has dropped from .833 to .692.
Hoffman and Springer are other names being talked about, although neither has a particularly high trade value right now. Relievers can often fetch a premium at the trade deadline, so the Jays should be willing sellers if another team comes calling on Hoffman. Myles Straw doesn’t bring a lot of power, but he provides Gold Glove defence and is dangerous on the base paths: two intangibles that often provide valuable depth to playoff teams.
Given his contract, Springer may be a bit more difficult to move. He’s in the final year, but few teams are willing to take on a $25 million salary for 11 home runs, a .708 OPS, and a potentially high injury risk. Springer has certainly been better in July, posting an OPS of .763 with three home runs and 12 RBI.
And of course, you cannot overlook Springer’s impact come October. It’s an X-Factor that will make him appealing to teams in search of offensive help for the playoffs. He’s T-3 all-time in homers and boasts an .880 OPS across 384 plate appearances. That includes an .899 mark just last year.
Varland is generally included in the Jays’ future core, but selling high on a reliever during a career year can be a prudent move, especially if they can bring in a big return. Varland ranks seventh in the MLB with 22 saves and has yet to blow one this season. For any team looking to fortify their bullpen or take on a new closer, he may fetch a return the Jays simply cannot turn down.
Blue Jays trade deadlines under Atkins and Shapiro
The current front office has shown that it is willing to take different approaches depending on the state of the team. There have been nearly 50 deadline trades since the Shapiro-Atkins era began nine deadlines ago. Here are the most notable.
| Season | Blue Jays Acquired | Blue Jays Sent |
| 2016 | LHP Francisco Liriano C Reese McGuire OF Harold Ramirez | RHP Drew Hutchinson |
| 2017 | OF Teoscar Hernandez OF Norichika Aoki | LHP Francisco Liriano |
| 2018 | RHP Julian Merryweather | 3B Josh Donaldson |
| 2018 | RHP Ken Giles RHP David Paulino RHP Hector Perez | RHP Roberto Osuna |
| 2018 | 3B Brandon Drury OF Billy McKinney | LHP J.A. Happ |
| 2019 | LHP Anthony KayLHP Simeon Woods-Richardson | RHP Marcus Stroman |
| 2020 | LHP Robbie Ray | LHP Travis Bergen |
| 2020 | RHP Ross Stripling | RHP Kendall Williams IF/OF Ryan Noda |
| 2021 | RHP José Berrios | IF/OS Austin Martin LHP Simeon Woods-Richardson |
| 2022 | RHP Zach PopRHP Anthony BassC Edward Duran | IF Jordan Groshans |
| 2022 | IF Whit Merrifield | RHP Max Castillo IF Samad Taylor |
| 2023 | RHP Jordan Hicks | RHP Sem Robberse RHP Adam Kloffstein |
| 2024 | RHP Jake Bloss OF Joey LoperfidoIF Will Wagner | LHP Yusei Kikuchi |
| 2024 | OF Jonatan ClaseC Jacob Sharp | RHP Yimi Garcia |
| 2025 | RHP Louis VarlandIF Ty France | OF Alan Roden LHP Kendry Rojas |
| 2025 | C Brandon Valenzuela | IF Will Wagner |
The conclusion from this subset is that aside from the 2025 trade class, the Atkins-Shapiro deadlines haven’t had much long-term impact. Teoscar Hernandez and Jose Berrios stand out as the acquisitions that paid the most long-term dividends.
Another notable point is that they target pitching depth. They haven’t been afraid to pull the trigger on bigger names like Robbie Ray or Bieber last season, which means you can expect them to at least kick the tires on controllable arms this year.
Finally, the Jays will not shy away from a high volume of deals. Whether they are buyers or sellers, this front office has not been afraid to pull the trigger, even with teams within their own division.
The luxury tax makes this deadline complicated
There is another factor that could influence Toronto’s decision-making: the Competitive Balance Tax.
Last season, the Blue Jays exceeded the second surcharge threshold, which resulted in their first-round draft pick dropping by 10 spots to 39th. Not only did that lead to a lower overall pick, but it cost them another draft pick and left them with one of the smallest international bonus pools in the draft.
This year, according to Roster Resource, Toronto’s CBT payroll sits at $318.8 million. The 2026 CBT threshold sits at $284 million, so the front office has some work to do to get under that level. Local reporters believe the Jays front office is not too concerned about that level, especially given the uncertainty coming in the next CBA.
We all know that Toronto has the chequebook to spend money if they want — money has never been an issue for the team. At past trade deadlines under Atkins and Shapiro, the team was even willing to take on salary when acquiring players to help other teams unload bad contracts.
There is also another threshold to get under at $304 million. Above this level, teams are taxed 60% on any spending beyond that. If the Jays continue their ways of taking on contracts, then it could also cost them more money on those taxes. Of course, the Jays will likely be more concerned about getting high-quality prospects in return, and will take on salary to do that if needed.
If Toronto remains above the relevant CBT threshold, it will mean significant draft consequences again. This doesn’t mean that Toronto will not spend if the deal is right. Any additional salary taken on should materially improve the team in 2026 and for years to come.
One final note: if the Jays finish with a bottom-six record in MLB, the draft pick is protected regardless of their CBT payroll. As of this writing, their seventh last.
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| Feature image courtesy AP Photo/Steven Senne via Canadian Press Images. |
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