What’s up with Vladdy? Breaking down his slump.
The Toronto Blue Jays are just over nine months removed from coming within one out of winning their third World Series. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. led the team every step of the way in 2025: riding a hot second half into the MLB playoffs, launching eight postseason home runs, and taking home the ALCS MVP honours. It was a monumental effort by the Jays superstar, but in the end, it just wasn’t quite enough to topple the mighty Los Angeles Dodgers.
Toronto entered the 2026 season with high expectations and was one of the clear betting favourites to win this year’s World Series. Shouldering many of those expectations was their first baseman. But this year, Guerrero Jr. has looked lost, and it’s arguably the biggest reason the Jays are on the outside looking in at the postseason.
| Win AL East | +4400 |
| Win AL | +1700 |
| AL No. 1 Seed | +6900 |
| Win World Series | +2900 |
*Odds subject to change
His power hasn’t been consistent, the stats do not match his career output and, more importantly, the lofty contract he signed in 2025, a 14-year, $500 million extension. When a player is paid $35 million per year, six home runs and a .357 slug at the All-Star Break just don’t cut it.
Is this simply a prolonged slump, or are there bigger factors contributing to his decline this year? As with most things, the answer is complicated. Let’s get into a few factors that could be weighing on Guerrero Jr. this season.
Is fatigue playing a role?
Deep playoff runs are what every team dreams of in any sport, but playing extended games under high-pressure situations can have unintended consequences.
Guerrero Jr. has been an ironman for the Jays. Since 2021, he’s played in no fewer than 156 games in every season. Add in eighteen pressure-packed contests during last year’s postseason, and some fatigue — both physical and mental — should not come as any surprise. He also represented the Dominican Republic at this year’s World Baseball Classic in March, playing in five games that had a much higher intensity than anything in spring training.
For a player like Guerrero Jr., fatigue often manifests in slower bat speeds, higher chase rates and lower-quality contact. While his bat speed isn’t too far off from previous years, his barrel rate has fallen from the 76th percentile to the 38th, while his hard-hit % has fallen from the 90th last year to the 67th.
But it’s not just hitting; it’s Guerrero Jr.’s entire approach at the plate. Before this season, he was an on-base machine, posting a career .361 OBP. This year, he’s just not exhibited the same patience at the plate. His chase rate was in the 89th percentile last season and fell all the way to the 41st. This has directly impacted his walk rate, which sat in the 87th percentile in 2025 but is now down to the 71st.
In short, Guerrero Jr. has not been his usual patient self at the plate, and when he has made contact with pitches, the quality of the contact has not been very good.
How big was the Bichette impact?
Could the problem just be as simple as losing a teammate?
For years, Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette formed one of baseball’s most dangerous offensive duos. Bichette solidified the top of Toronto’s order for years, and nowhere was that more evident than in his three-run home run off Shohei Ohtani in Game 7 of the World Series. In his seven seasons as a Blue Jay, Bichette was perennially among baseball’s hits leaders, leading the American League in both 2021 and 2022.
But their chemistry extended beyond the field and even beyond the clubhouse. On the field, Bichette was always a threat to get on base ahead of Guerrero Jr. Off the field, he was a close personal friend. His departure was largely expected, but it still altered the dynamic of the clubhouse, and it would not be a stretch to imagine that Guerrero Jr.’s performance would also be impacted.
Has MLB adapted to him?
Pitchers have a little less fear in pitching to Guerrero Jr. Not only does he not have the safety of Bichette in the lineup, but he has also been chasing balls outside of the strike zone. MLB pitchers have adapted, and Guerrero Jr. is seeing a move away from off-speed pitches and fastballs towards breaking balls outside of the zone.
Both Ernie Clement and Kazuma Okamoto have done their best to fill the void in the lineup left by Bichette. Clement is a great contact hitter but doesn’t have the same OBP history that Bichette has. Okamoto is emerging as a potential protector for Guerrero Jr. in the lineup, but he also closed out the first half of the season with a strikeout rate north of 32%.
Is he injured?
Guerrero Jr. missed five games in June due to back discomfort, but it wasn’t enough to put him on the injured list. Still, back injuries are notoriously difficult for hitters to play through: every part of the swing mechanics puts torque on the back.
The injury has lingered for about a month now, and Guerrero Jr. has chosen to skip the MLB All-Star Game despite being voted in as a starter by the fans. This tells us a couple of things: first, he’s focused on a strong finish to the season and, second, the back injury is likely a little more serious than he’s let on.
As mentioned, Guerrero Jr. has been an ironman for the Jays. For an injury to sideline him means it is rather significant, especially when you add in skipping the All-Star Game.
Although the back injury has certainly had an impact, Guerrero Jr.’s mentor and baseball legend Albert Pujols had a different take on it. The sure-fire first-ballot Hall of Famer pointed out that Guerrero Jr. is holding his bat too far back over his helmet, which lengthens the swing and makes it difficult to react to pitches. Pujols, who coached Guerrero Jr. at the WBC, has encouraged him to hold his hands closer to the plate to shorten his swing and make it easier to react to different pitches.
Is a second-half rebound in the cards?
The Jays and their fans certainly hope so.
Half a season of struggles does not erase five consecutive MLB All-Star appearances and two Silver Slugger Awards. But the timing could not be worse for Guerrero Jr.
Last year, he looked like he was on the cusp of being the next great player in baseball, leading his team on an improbable World Series run. This year, his $500-million contract looks bloated, and time is quickly turning into the enemy for the Jays.
The good news for Toronto is that Guerrero Jr.’s still in his prime, and his bat speed continues to be elite. With such a stark contrast between this year’s metrics and his career averages, it seems like a reversion to the mean should be in his future. A slight uptick in barrel rate and hard contact should help, but what he really needs is to get back to being patient and selective at the plate. When a player struggles, they squeeze the bat a bit harder and chase pitches outside of the zone.
Unless Guerrero Jr. and the Jays turn things around in a hurry, they may not be buyers at this year’s August 3 trade deadline. That means that the lineup protection may not get any stronger and he’ll have to figure out a return to form on his own.
A four-month-long slump is a reason for concern for any player, regardless of his history. While Guerrero Jr. certainly has the talent and ability to bounce back, it may not happen this year. There’s a little more to this slow start than just bad luck, and it shows in his advanced metrics. With an injured back, less lineup protection and a surprising drop in plate discipline, it will take some work for him to just return to normal this season.
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| Feature image courtesy AP Photo/Matt Marton via Canadian Press Images. Stats courtesy baseball-reference.com and baseballsavant.com. |
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