Almost exactly five years to the day since Conor McGregor famously broke his tibia in the closing seconds of Round 1 in his trilogy fight with Dustin Poirier, the biggest star in MMA history will make his long awaited return Saturday night at UFC 329.

McGregor was the defining star of the UFC’s PPV era, headlining eight of the company’s 10 biggest events during that time frame. Despite fighting just four times since becoming double champ in November of 2016, the 37-year-old is still the biggest draw the UFC has, and Dana White himself believes UFC 329 will set a new record for the largest gate in company history. 

“Listen, Conor, you guys know as well as I do, I mean he’s a f—–g, he’s a powerhouse, man,” White told reporters Tuesday in Washington. “I mean, when he’s involved – tickets, as soon as they went on sale, went flying.”

What to expect from McGregor

As many know, this is not the first time McGregor has been expected to return. He famously withdrew from the UFC 303 main event two years after breaking his toe weeks before his scheduled bout against Michael Chandler. “Iron Mike” has not fared well since, with three-straight lopsided losses to Charles Oliveira, Paddy Pimblett, and Mauricio Ruffy.

While many believe Chandler still deserved the long awaited matchup, the UFC has gone in a drastically different direction, opting to have McGregor take on old rival Max “Blessed” Holloway. The former Featherweight and BMF Champion is one of the UFC’s most exciting stars. He has ridiculous pace (6.9 Significant Strikes landed per minute), zero intentions to wrestle and iconic fight-ending sequences that include his legendary knockout of the now Lightweight Champion Justin Gaethje at UFC 300.

The UFC clearly didn’t want to see McGregor wrestle for 25 minutes in his return (hence Holloway getting the nod over the new BMF Champ in Oliveira) and the oddsmakers are expecting someone to find a knockout. 

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Notable McGregor vs. Holloway odds

WINNERMcGregor +170Holloway -210
TOTALOver 2.5 +110Under 2.5 -140
GO THE DISTANCE?Yes +375No -550
WIN BY KO/TKO/DQMcGregor +220Holloway -115

*Odds subject to change

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Why McGregor will win

  1. He’s been preparing to fight at welterweight for some time now, and has already fought at 170 lbs. three times in his career (the two Diaz fights and Cerrone).
  2. He has proven power at WW having knocked down Diaz three times in their rematch and finishing Cerrone in the first round. Plus, he’s famous for his precision power shots across all weight classes.
  3. Holloway only recently moved up to lightweight full time, and is now going to be adding an additional 15 lbs. While he’s no doubt used to fighting at this weight, he certainly isn’t used to an opponent as big as McGregor.
  4. Nobody is expecting McGregor to out-point Holloway across a gruelling 25 minutes, but “The Notorious” is as dangerous as any in the early stages. Eight of McGregor’s 10 UFC wins have come via KO/TKO in the first two rounds (his decision win over Holloway being a glaring exception). 

Why Holloway will win

  1. One fighter is 37 and hasn’t fought in more than five years. The other is 34 and has eight fights in those five years, all of them five-round Title Fights/Main Events. How would you price the fight?
  2. His recent lightweight wins over Gaethje and Poirier are proof that he’s just as dangerous at 155 as he was at 145, and McGregor (despite the new weight class) is a true lightweight
  3. There’s almost no doubt he’ll have the speed advantage. If he can wear McGregor out early, it should erase any power disparity between the two.
  4. He has some of the best cardio in the UFC. Any fight that extends past the third round will be his to lose (that is, if he doesn’t find a knockout even sooner).

McGregor vs. Holloway prediction

This is as much a spectacle as it is a fight, and I believe in the early stages we may catch a glimpse of the old McGregor: hard hitting and brimming with confidence; the crowd eating out of his hand. But the disparity in activity over the past half decade is too hard to ignore.

Holloway isn’t just a former champion, he’s one of the best strikers in UFC history. McGregor can absolutely make the same claim, but when you combine the five-year layoff with his advanced age there are simply too many strikes against him to predict a victory. As McGregor’s adrenaline wears off and he begins to slow down, expect Holloway to go to work, ultimately finding a flurry with too much damage for the referee to ignore.

MMA Xpert prediction: Holloway by KO/TKO/DQ in Round 2

The final word

While the majority of viewers will be tuning in to see McGregor’s return, don’t be fooled into thinking this is a one-fight show. With stars like Benoit Saint Denis, Paddy Pimblett, Cory Sandhagen, Brandon Royval, Robert Whittaker and the debut of top-notch heavyweight prospect Gable Stevenson, this card has the makings to be of one of the best of the year, and should be fireworks from start to finish.

Will we get a vintage performance from McGregor, or is this simply a short footnote to the end of his storied MMA career? The only way to find out is to tune in on Saturday night. And remember, one thing is always true when it comes to “The Notorious”: Love him or hate him, we all watch.

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Feature image courtesy AP Photo/John Locher via Canadian Press Images.
Stats courtesy UFC.com.

UFC 329 FAQs

1 When is UFC 329?

UFC 329 takes place on Saturday, July 11, 2026 in Las Vegas, Nevada.

2 What time is UFC 329?

The Early Prelims begin at 5:00 p.m. ET, the Prelims at 7:00 p.m. ET and the Main Card at 9:00 p.m. ET. 

3 Who is headlining UFC 329?

The Conor McGregor-Max Holloway rematch is the main event.

4 How can I watch UFC 329 in Canada?

UFC 329 can be streamed live in Canada. The Early Prelims are available on UFC Fight Pass; the Prelims on Sportsnet+ and UFC Fight Pass; and the Main Card on DAZN CA and Sportsnet+.

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