The FedEx Cup Playoffs field is officially set with the 70 top players from the 2026 PGA Tour season heading to TPC Southwind in Memphis for the FedEx St. Jude Championship. They’ll all be looking to secure a spot in next week’s BMW Championship. A win isn’t necessary to move on, but a winning bet or two sure would be nice, right? We’re here to help.

FedEx Cup Playoffs format

For those unfamiliar with the format, the FedEx Cup Playoffs consist of three tournaments across three weeks, culminating with the Tour Championship at the end of August.

The 70 players with the most FedEx Cup points following last week’s Wyndham Championship qualified for this week. That number will be cut to the Top 50 for the BMW Championship. Following the BMW, the Top 30 will advance to the Tour Championship, where the best score across four rounds at East Lake Golf Club will be crowned the Tour Champion for 2026. 

But what does this structure actually mean for this week? Well, you can essentially count on the very top of the FedEx Cup leaderboard making it to the BMW, but players hovering around and below that Top-50 watermark will need to get a bit more aggressive if they want to live to play another tournament. With that being said, there are plenty of things to talk about (and bets to be made) for this week specifically, so let’s get into it.

Top 25 odds to win FedEx St. Jude Championship

  1. Scottie Scheffler +450
  2. Rory McIlroy +1200
  3. Xander Schauffele +1600
  4. Tommy Fleetwood +1800
  5. Cameron Young +1800
  6. Sam Burns +2000
  7. Matt Fitzpatrick +2200
  8. Hideki Matsuyama +2200
  9. Collin Morikawa +2500
  10. Ludvig Åberg +2500
  11. Justin Thomas +2500
  12. Si Woo Kim +2800
  13. Viktor Hovland +2800
  14. Chris Gotterup +3300
  15. Patrick Cantlay +3300
  16. Russell Henley +3300
  17. Jackson Koivun +4000
  18. Robert MacIntyre +4000
  19. Tom Kim +4000
  20. Michael Brennan +4000
  21. J.J. Spaun +4000
  22. Michael Thorbjornsen +4000
  23. Ryan Gerard +4000
  24. Wyndham Clark +4000
  25. Ben Griffin +4000

*Odds subject to change

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TPC Southwind: Course breakdown and player analysis

Southwind ranks among the middle of the pack for the PGA Tour courses in terms of difficulty (24th of 49 in 2025) and has consistently produced a winner in the mid-teens under par in recent years.

  • Justin Rose, -16 in 2025 (playoff)
  • Hideki Matsuyama, -17 in 2024
  • Lucas Glover, -15 playoff in 2023 (playoff)
  • Will Zalatoris, -15 in 2023 (playoff)

A Par 70 with water hazards on 11 holes and small greens, the winner this weekend will be someone who can mix accuracy off the tee with laser focused approach shots and, of course, paying that all off with a hot putter!

Betting statistics to watch

I’m targeting four metrics that will be critical at the St. Jude Championship this week.

  • Strokes Gained: Approach The holy grail of golf analysis, analyzing the quality of non-tee shots attacking the green.
  • Good Drive Pct. Similar to Driving Accuracy Pct., this metric measures the amount of shots that lead to a green in regulation, allowing flexibility for shots off the fairway that are still maximized. 
  • Scrambling Measures a player’s ability to make par or better after they’ve missed a GIR. With small greens and a low winning score expected it will be absolutely crucial to avoid bogeys.
  • Par 4 Scoring Average With just two Par 5s this week, it is especially crucial that players simultaneously take advantage of the easy Par 4s while minimizing mistakes bogeys on the tough ones.

Just five players from the 70-man field are in the top-quartile (Top 41 on the season) across all four categories.

PLAYERSG:APPGOOD DRIVE PCT.SCRAMBLINGPAR 4 SCORING
Scottie Scheffler11th3rd1st1st
Matt Fitzpatrick1st7th34thT-6
Tom Kim6th9th4thT-6
Cameron Young16th37th6thT-6
Patrick Cantlay21st29th10thT-6

As you can see, this list heavily features the “usual suspects” we see popping up in many of our previous articles. Diving in further, let’s look for anyone who’s “elite” (we’ll call that Top 20) in at least three of the categories.

PLAYERSG:APPGOOD DRIVE PCT.SCRAMBLINGPAR 4 SCORING
Si Woo Kim3rd10th61st2nd
Collin Morikawa2nd5th139th16th
Russell Henley53rd8th9thT-6

This is a very solid list that looks an awful like the top of this week’s betting board! To narrow it down, let’s check in on how these players have played at this event the past three years (which coincides with the Tour doing away with a cut).

PLAYER202520242023
Scottie SchefflerT-34thT-31
Matt FitzpatrickT-26T-18T-16
Tom KimT-33T-50T-24
Cameron YoungT-40T-61T-31
Patrick CantlayT-18T-122nd (Playoff Loss)
Si Woo KimT-22T-50T-16
Collin MorikawaT-8T-22T-13
Russell HenleyT-14T-30T-6

Now that we have all this data in hand, let’s get to my official picks for the week.

FedEx St. Jude Championship best bets

Finishing Position: Scottie Scheffler Under 5.5 -120

After winning The American Express in January to begin his season, it looked like another year of Scottie Scheffler piling up the trophies, but that hasn’t been the case. The World No. 1 has gone winless since, and comes into the FedEx Playoffs with no majors or Signature Events to show for what has actually been a fantastic season.

Despite the lack of hardware, Scheffler has been a machine as always, with 11 of his 17 tournaments played ending in a Top-5 finish. He’ll be taking on the best in the world and his +450 Outright/Winner price looks a bit steep. But against a reduced field with no cut, I see value in the -120 and its implied 54.5% probability, which is much shorter than the 11/17 results (64.7%) indicate. 

For those curious, I have gone with a bet on Finishing Position instead of the standard Top 5 market to avoid the possibility of a dead heat. In this scenario, should Scottie tie for 5th, our wager will not be subject to a payout reduction for dead heat rules, giving us some added insurance over the traditional market. 

Winner w/o McIlroy / Scheffler: Tom Kim +3300

Tom Kim enters the FedEx Playoffs in excellent form, having finished T-20 or better in five of his past seven starts, including a solo third at the U.S. Open and a victory against a stacked field at the Scottish Open.

Fresh off a T-5 finish at the Wyndham Championship last weekend, TK has a fantastic combination of course fit and form to put a stamp on his year. With the added benefit of dodging Scheffler and Rory McIlroy for a small price reduction (he’s +4000 on the Outright/Winner with the two big guns included), I see no reason not to take a shot here on the streaking 24 year old.

Winning Margin: Playoff +350

Since 2022 the winner of this event has been decided in a playoff on three of four occasions, that’s a pretty good historical record for +350 odds! Of course with so many golfers it’s more likely than not someone can pull away from the pack, but when you put the PGA Tour’s 70 best on the course together for four rounds things are bound to be tight.

Four of this year’s eight Signature Events (with similar sized fields & talent pools) ended in a playoff. And even if you throw in the four majors that leaves us with a 4/12 sample on the season, which is the equivalent of 33.33% or +200 odds. That +350 number is simply too juicy for me to pass up. 

Putting out

While the bets I’ve shouted out may not be your cup of tea, I always recommend doing your own research and looking for the best way to play the golfer you feel the most confident about. While we are indeed in the playoffs, golf betting remains a perennial marathon, never a sprint. Trust your process the way the pros trust their yardages and hopefully you’ll find yourself on (or, in our case, in) the green.

And if you’re looking for a more detailed breakdown about golf betting in general check out my Golf Betting Guide. It’s a deeper look at betting the sport, including top markets, live betting strategies, a statistical deep dive and much more. 

Best of luck and enjoy the golf! 

Feature image courtesy AP Photo/Bruce Kluckhohn via Canadian Press Images.
Statistics courtesy PGATour.com.

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