The field has officially been narrowed to 50, and for the second straight week, the best from this season of the PGA Tour will compete for a chance to play in next week’s TOUR Championship. This weekend will see the field take on Bellerive Country Club, marking its first appearance since the 2018 PGA Championship, where Brooks Koepka’s -16 beat Tiger Woods by two strokes en route to his first PGA Championship and third Major overall. 

Nicknamed the “Green Monster of Ladue”despite playing as a Par-70 this weekend, the course will measure out to a monstrous 7448 yards and is equipped with deep bunkers, ample chances to find the water, and thick rough, making accuracy from distance a must this weekend.

Top 10 odds to win the BMW Championship

  1. Scottie Scheffler, +275
  2. Rory McIlroy, +1200
  3. Ludvig Aberg, +1400
  4. Xander Schauffele, +1400
  5. Sam Burns, +1600
  6. Matt Fitzpatrick, +1800
  7. Tommy Fleetwood, +1800
  8. Cameron Young, +1800
  9. Hideki Matsuyama, +2200
  10. Chris Gotterup, +2200

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Bellerive Country Club: Course breakdown and player analysis

As exemplified by Koepka’s -16 winning score in 2018, this course is long and difficult, but certainly gettable. In 2018, Koepka made just five bogeys across his four rounds, minimizing mistakes. 

“Hard par, but an easy bogey” was the philosophy of designer Robert Trent Jones, and that will ring true as ever this weekend. With all that in mind, let’s dive into the key metrics we’ll be utilizing this weekend.

Betting statistics to watch

The following four metrics will be the criteria for our model this weekend:

  • Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee (SG: OTT): As mentioned above, the combination of distance and hazards makes a strong tee shot critical for success at Bellerive.
  • Strokes Gained: Approach-the-Green (SG: APP): Critical as ever, golfers will need their A-game on approach this weekend in order to compete.
  • Bogey Avoidance (BA): Referring to Koepka’s 2018 performance as a key example, avoiding easy mistakes and keeping pace with the leaderboard is a must. 
  • Par 4 Birdie or Better % (P4B+): With just two Par 5’s this weekend, both measuring 600+ yards, simply making par on the dozen Par 4’s will not be adequate to become the BMW Champion on Sunday. 

The following golfers currently meet our standard criteria of being in the top quartile (Top-40) on Tour this season in all four categories. With such a small field this week, I’ve also included the additional two golfers who rank top-30 in at least three of the four categories.

PLAYEROdds To WinSG:OTTSG: APPBAP4B+
Scottie Scheffler+3004th6th1st1st
Si Woo Kim+200018th3rd9th2nd
Cameron Young+180013th21st14th21st
Ludvig Aberg+140015th17th59th28th
Collin Morikawa+330030th1st75th13th

Three of these players finished in the Top-10 last week (Sheffler 1st, Kim 2nd, and Aberg T7) and are in particularly strong form. As such, they will be the focus of our wagers this weekend.

BMW Championship best bets

To Scottie or not to Scottie? The World No. 1 finally captured his second victory of the year last weekend, outpacing the field by a whopping eight strokes on his way to the St. Jude Championship. Between the incredible performance and even smaller field, his odds have now plummeted to +300, which is a bit too rich for my taste. But just like last week where he cashed our Finishing Position wager for us, we’ll find a way to get him in!

Winner w/o Scottie Scheffler: Si Woo Kim +1800

Yes, I know, nobody likes betting long odds that paid out last weekend. But the numbers don’t lie, and Kim is having an incredible season despite the lack of a No. 1 finish. The 31-year-old has earned a top-10 in 11 of his 22 starts including the sole second last weekend (albeit, by eight strokes). While Kim has not played his best on Sundays this season, he is the only player in the field that fits our key metrics even remotely as well as Scheffler. Assuming he can hold his form, I see no reason why he can’t be the best golfer in the field this weekend, especially when we don’t have to worry about the man eating up an implied 25% of the overall win probability. 

H2H: Ludvig Aberg Over Tommy Fleetwood -120

Another golfer having a quiet but strong year due to a lack of a victory is the young Swede. Aberg is rounding into form with back-to-back top-10 finishes at the Open Championship and the St. Jude in his last two starts. Bogey Avoidance is the Achilles heel for Aberg, based on our key metrics, but outside of a poor Round 3 (+4) last weekend, he played extremely well. 

While last year’s TOUR Championship winner Fleetwood is going to be no easy out, I do think Aberg is simply a better fit for Bellerive. Fleetwood has, of course, one of the best short games on tour, but this year he’s left much to be desired in SG:APP (45th on the season) for a player of his calibre. Fleetwood is also near the bottom of the PGA Tour in terms of P4B+ (142nd), so while I’m confident in him managing the course and avoiding bogies, I’m not overly optimistic he’ll be around to make a run on Sunday. Give me the upside of Aberg over the floor of Fleetwood in their H2H.

Finishing Position: Cameron Young U15.5 -120

Despite coming up just short in multiple Majors this year (T3rd at Augusta, sole second at the Open Championship) Cameron Young has had a career-year, with victories at THE PLAYERS and the Cadillac Championship vaulting him into third on the FedExCup points leaderboard. 

While Young has had back-to-back mediocre starts by his usual standards (T61 at the Wyndham in which he was the Outright favourite, and T39th last weekend), the 29-year-old fits our model extremely well this week. The American is inside the top 21 in all four categories (worth noting he’s been the best Approach player from >100 yards this year), and I think getting an arguably top-5 player in the world at this line makes a ton of sense. In a field of just 50, Young needs to be just a top-30% player (including ties) to cash out this bet. Sign me up!

Putting out

As always, whether or not you’re keen on any of the picks I have outlined above, it is important to do your own research, as golf betting is just like playing golf – you need to figure out your own game! 

For those keen to learn more about betting on the sport, feel free to check out my Golf Betting Guide. It’s a deeper look at betting the sport, including top markets, live betting strategies, a statistical deep dive and much more. 

Best of luck and enjoy the golf!

BMW Championship 2026 FAQs

1 Where is the BMW Championship being played this year?

The BMW Championship is taking place at Bellerive Country Club, marking the PGA Tour’s first return to the course since the 2018 PGA Championship. Nicknamed the “Green Monster of Ladue,” it plays as a long Par-70 measuring 7,448 yards and features deep bunkers, thick rough, and numerous water hazards.

2 Who is the favorite to win the BMW Championship?

World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler is the overwhelming favorite to win, entering the tournament with +275 odds. His short odds reflect his dominant eight-stroke victory at last week’s St. Jude Championship and his unmatched statistical profile heading into the 50-player field.

3 What are the best value bets for the BMW Championship?

With Scottie Scheffler taking up so much of the implied win probability, the “Winner w/o Scottie Scheffler” market offers great value. Si Woo Kim (+1800) is a prime target in that market due to his excellent metrics and recent solo second-place finish. Other top picks include Ludvig Aberg (-120) over Tommy Fleetwood in a Head-to-Head matchup, and Cameron Young (U15.5 at -120) for his finishing position.

Feature image courtesy AP Photo/George Walker IV via Canadian Press Images.

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