World Cup 2026 Group D might be the tightest at the top of any in the tournament. The United States open as betting favourites, but barely. With Turkey, Australia and Paraguay in the group, all four sides are ranked between 16 and 40 in the world. If you’re into sports betting, this is one of the premier groups to watch.

Their matches will be played on the west coast of the U.S. and in Vancouver.

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World Cup 2026 Group D odds and bets available at ToonieBet

The United States, as one of the co-hosts with home advantage, start as the favourites to win Group D at odds of +120. However, as mentioned above, this is a competitive group, so it’s no surprise to see the odds to win Group D reflect that. Turkey is +170, Paraguay is +360, and Australia +550.

While no Group D team is necessarily expected to win the World Cup, their odds to do so are as follows: USA +6600, Turkey +10000, Paraguay +15000 and Australia +50000. Their chances look slim, but stranger things have happened.

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FIFA World Cup 2026 Group D Teams

Group D is a group where all two, and possibly three, qualification places are up for grabs. There’s no standout team, so the USA, Turkey, Paraguay and Australia will not only look forward to making the Round of 32, but they will all have hopes of topping the group.

United States

FIFA Ranking: 16 | Manager: Mauricio Pochettino | Qualified: Co-hosts (Automatic)

The United States will compete with home-field advantage and a squad built around stars Christian Pulisic, Weston McKennie and Tyler Adams. The U.S. has also found some firepower at the front in strikers Folarin Balogun and Ricardo Pepi. Their odds to progress are -550.

Turkey

FIFA Ranking: 22 | Manager: Vincenzo Montella | Qualified: UEFA Path C winners

It’s been more than two decades since we last saw Turkey at a World Cup (a third-place finish in 2002), but they’re back and ready to compete. They will be led by Italian manager Vincenzo Montella, who can call on some of the brightest young talents in world soccer. Attacking midfielders Arda Guler, 21, and Can Uzan, 20, have the creativity to unlock defences on demand. And winger Kenan Yildiz, 21, looks the real deal. They’re -450 to progress.

Paraguay

FIFA Ranking: 40 | Manager: Gustavo Alfaro | Qualified: CONMEBOL round robin, sixth place

Paraguay is back at a World Cup for the first time in 16 years, and if it wasn’t for manager Gustavo Alfaro, they may have missed out once again. He was the inspiration behind vital qualification wins and now will turn to players like Diego Gomez and Julio Enciso in the tournament. They’re priced at -200 to advance.

Australia

FIFA Ranking: 27 | Manager: Tony Popovic | Qualified: AFC third round Group C, runners-up

The Socceroos head to North America to compete in their seventh World Cup. Tony Popovic helped to guide the team in qualification after being appointed in 2024. Goalkeeper Mathew Ryan, who will captain the squad, is the leader. Their star players are arguably at the back in Alessandro Circati, a central defender, and left-back Jordan Bos. They’re sitting at +100 to advance from the group.

Players to watch in Group D

There’s a raft of top players who will be looking to make their mark in Group D. Here are some of the best of them:

  • Christian Pulisic (USA) – The 27-year-old forward is very much the face of the Americans. With 32 goals in 84 games for his country, if the U.S. are to deliver on home soil, they will be looking to the AC Milan attacker for inspiration.
  • Arda Guler (Turkey) – Probably the most exciting player in Group D, although a couple of his teammates might have something to say about that. The 21-year-old Real Madrid star is beginning to impress in La Liga and will look to take that form into the World Cup.
  • Kenan Yildiz (Turkey) – The 21-year-old winger has been impressive for Juventus in Serie A this season. It’s another sign that Turkey could be the dark horses, thanks to an abundance of young talent..
  • Diego Gomez (Paraguay) – At 23, he’s established himself as one of Brighton’s star players in the Premier League, which is great news for Paraguay. His versatility will be key for his country.
  • Alessandro Circati (Australia) – It’s not often a central defender is a team’s star player, but it’s the case with the 22-year-old. He plays at the top level for Parma in Serie A and will be crucial as Australia are likely to come under fire at the back.

Young talents and debutants in Group D

We’ve detailed Turkey’s young stars, but there are others in the group.

  • Nestory Irankunda, 20, who currently plays for Watford, has everything you could want in a winger; he’s quick and direct.
  • Paraguay’s Julio Enciso of Strasbourg, aged 22, is the one to watch. He’s an eye-catching attacking midfielder.
  • Ricardo Pepi, the 23-year-old American forward, might be the pick of this bunch. He’s tipped to be heading to the Premier League shortly.

Group D qualification predictions: Who goes through?

The United States are the team many expect to win Group D, especially as they have the home advantage in all of their matches. But one misstep could cost them because of the depth of the group.

The battle for second is the talking point. Arguably, any of the three remaining teams could finish as runners-up. Whatever the odds say, Turkey and Australia are probably slightly ahead of Paraguay, but you can’t write the latter off with the talent they have available.

Right now, the most likely outcome is the U.S. to finish top and Turkey runners-up, but once the battle for second is over, the race for a solid third-place finish will begin.

Potential Round of 32 matchups for Group D teams

The winner of Group D will take on the third-placed team from Group B, E, F, I or J. The team that finishes second in Group D will take on the runner-up of Group G. If a third-placed team progresses from the group, they will play the winner of Group E, I or K.

Group D Schedule and Games for the 2026 FIFA World Cup

Group D games will be played June 12-25 across the U.S. west coast and in Vancouver. All the final round matches will kick off at the same time.

Group D Round 1 matches

June 12 – United States vs. Paraguay | Los Angeles

The U.S. will hope to take advantage of home support and are +100 to win. Paraguay will be organized and looking to break on the counter, they’re +80 to win. The draw is +240.

June 13 – Australia vs. Turkey | Vancouver

This could be the decider for second place, even at this early stage. Turkey are the favourites at -133 thanks to their attacking talents. But Australia will compete hard and are +333 to win. The draw is +280.

Group D Round 2 matches

June 19 – United States vs. Australia | Seattle

At this point, Australia could need a result to keep their hopes of progressing alive. And the Americans will be out to secure first place. Two teams with different ambitions should make for a great match. A U.S. win is -137, the draw is +300 and Australia to win is +333.

June 19 – Turkey vs. Paraguay | San Francisco

Turkey should be in a great position to secure safe passage into the Round of 32. But they’re likely coming up against a Paraguay team that must win to continue in the tournament. Turkey are favourites to win at +122. Paraguay to pull off a shock result is +250, and the draw is +214.

Group D Round 3 Matches

June 25 – Turkey vs. United States | Los Angles

June 25 – Paraguay vs. Australia | San Francisco

Both final round matches will be played at the same time. In a group this tight, anything is possible in terms of what could play out this day..

Last 5 matches for Group D teams

United States: Beat Senegal 2-1, lost 2-0 to Portugal and 5-2 to Belgium. Defeated Uruguay 5-1 and Paraguay 2-1 (all friendlies).

Paraguay: Lost to Morocco 2-1. Defeated Greece 1-0 and Mexico 2-1. Lost to USA 2-1 and South Korea 2-0 (all friendlies).

Australia: Defeated Curacao 5-1 and Cameroon 1-0. Lost to Colombia 3-0, Venezuela 1-0 and the USA 2-1 (All friendlies).

Turkey: Beat North Macedonia 4-0 (friendly). Defeated Kosovo and Romania 1-0, drew with Spain 2-2 and beat Bulgaria 2-0 (World Cup Qualifiers).

Head-to-Head history: Group D

United States vs. Paraguay: In nine matches the U.S. is 5-2-2. Their most recent meeting was a 2-1 U.S. win in a 2025 friendly.

United States vs. Australia: The teams have met on four occasions, with the USA winning twice, losing once and the sides drawing the other. The last fixture was a 2-1 U.S. victory in October 2025.

United States vs. Turkey: In five previous meetings, the sides have been dead even, going 2-1-2. Turkey won 2-1 in a JUne 2025 friendly.

Turkey vs. Australia: They’ve only met twice in their history, with Turkey winning on both occasions. The last meeting was a 1-0 victory for Turkey in 2004.

Turkey vs. Paraguay: There’s only been one meeting between the two nations, a 0-0 draw in 1995.

Australia vs. Paraguay: They’ve played each other five times, all friendlies. Three ended in draws, the other two in Australia victories. Their last meeting was a 1-0 Socceroos win in 2010. 

Group D thrillers: matches we’ll never forget

USA vs. Portugal, 2014 World Cup – Jermaine Jones leveled for the USA with a stunning strike and then Clint Dempsey put them in front, giving the Americans hope of topping the group. However, it wasn’t meant to be. Silvestre Varela headed home a last-minute equalizer. The match finished 2-2.

Turkey vs. Senegal, 2002 World Cup – Turkey made a remarkable run to the semifinals at the and it was thanks to a goal in extra time by Ilhan Mansiz. They’d lose to eventual champion Brazil but topped South Korea for third place..

Qualification analysis: The “Best 3rd Place” factor

The expanded format of the 2026 World Cup means that the eight best third-placed teams will also advance to the Round of 32, alongside the teams that finish first and second in their groups. Second and third place will likely be a battle between Australia, Turkey and Paraguay.

Statistics via FBRef.com, ESPN.com and 11v11.com.

1 Which teams are in Group D?

USA, Australia, Paraguay and Turkey.

2 Which team is the favourite to win Group D?

USA are the current favourites to win Group D.

3 Who are the players to watch in Group D?

Christian Pulisic (USA), Alessandro Circati (Australia), Diego Gomez (Paraguay) and Arda Guler (Turkey).

4 When will Group D matches begin?

June 12, 2026 at 9:00 p.m. ET with USA vs. Paraguay in Los Angeles.

5 What are the teams’ odds to win Group D?

At the time of this writing, USA +130, Turkey +160, Paraguay +333 and Australia +600.

6 Where will Group D play in the World Cup?

World Cup 2026 Group D matches will be played in the United States and Canada.

7 What cities will Group D play in?

Los Angeles, San Francisco, Seattle and Vancouver. 

8 How many teams advance from Group D?

The teams that finish first and second in Group D will automatically advance. A third-place finish is also a possible route into the next round.

9 Who is the highest FIFA-ranked team in Group D?

The USA, who are ranked 16th.

10 What are the Top 3 bets to use on Group D?

The USA and Turkey to qualify for the next round and Australia to beat Paraguay.

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