Once thought of as a pipe dream, the UFC has pulled off the unthinkable and will host one of its biggest events of the year this Sunday on the White House lawn. Seven high-profile fights will take place in celebration of the United States’ 250th birthday.

While not a traditional “numbered event,” the UFC Freedom 250 card is loaded with star power and title fights. The Lightweight Championship and Interim Heavyweight Champion titles are at stake with a slew of former champions and challengers filling out the card. If you’re into sports betting and MMA, June 14 is the day for you.

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UFC Freedom 250 fight card

Diego Lopes (-160) vs. Steve Garcia (+130)

Diego Lopes has been one of the UFC’s most exciting fighters since his standout short notice debut against Movsar Evloev in 2023, nearly submitting the undefeated contender multiple times in a decision loss. Since, he has been undefeated against anyone not named Alexander Volkanovski, including a vicious spinning back elbow TKO against Jean Silva last September that earned him a second title opportunity. Now looking to rebound off another decision loss to Volkanovski in January, Lopes is hopes to make another major statement on a massive stage to get back into the title picture.

Opposite Lopes in the opener will be the “Mean Machine” Steve Garcia, now a full four years clear of his last loss . With six KO/TKO wins in that seven-fight stretch, Garcia is one of the most powerful strikers currently in the Featherweight division. 

The case for Lopes

While his striking has been the highlight of his most recent wins, it’s easy to forget that he is one of the best BJJ practitioners in the UFC. If Lopes can break through Garcia’s 88% takedown defence, the threat of his grappling in combination with his high-level striking should carry him to victory. 

The case for Garcia

A clinical striker who lands 5.4 Significant Strikes per minute while absorbing just 2.1 thanks to a combination of fantastic striking and takedown defence. At 2.4 Knockdowns per 15, he has the power to end any fight at a moment’s notice, and against a fighter who absorbs as many Significant Strikes as Lopes (4.6 per minute) he should have ample opportunity to attack so as long as this fight remains upright. 

Bo Nickal (-320) vs. Kyle Daukaus (+130)

Bo Nickal rebounded from his first career loss with a Head Kick KO win at MSG in November; now gets a much stiffer test in the streaking Kyle Daukaus, who has scored a finish in less than a minute in both his fights since returning to the UFC. Nickal’s wrestling pedigree is world class, but his ability to strike when the grappling is neutralized remains a major question mark after his TKO loss to Reinier de Ridder in May. 

The case for Nickal

While Daukaus is no grappling slouch, he is nowhere near the level of Nickal, one of the most decorated NCAA wrestlers ever. If Nickal can land an early takedown it should give him the confidence to mix in striking and apply pressure. If he’s to find the victory, expect his control time to closely match the actual length of the fight. 

The case for Daukaus

Daukaus has more than twice the number of professional fights than Nickal, so there is no doubt as to where the experience edge lies. Daukaus has historically been known for his submission wins, and while Nickal has never been taken down there is always the opportunity for a reversal on the ground. Additionally, Daukaus should expect to hold the edge in the striking department courtesy a stand-up game has looked much improved since his first UFC tenure. If this fight is a mostly stand-up affair, that will be an excellent indicator that Daukaus has outperformed his price.

Mauricio Ruffy (-700) vs. Michael Chandler (+475)

The now former Fighting Nerd, Mauricio Ruffy, will be on the biggest stage of his career as one of the heaviest favourites on the card as he takes on “Iron” Michael Chandler. The latter has had a wild ride in the UFC to say the least. Despite being just 2-5 in his tenure, his balls-to-the-wall style makes him must-see TV, earning a Performance/Fight Of The Night bonus in five of seven UFC bouts.

The case for Ruffy

Ruffy is rightfully a massive favourite here, holding an edge in almost every meaningful area. More than a decade younger than Chandler, he has the much cleaner chin, a significant reach advantage, and a mesmerizing combination of striking accuracy and power that can put anyone’s lights out. If this fight looks like a traditional Muay Thai/Kickboxing affair, then it should only be a matter of “when” he finds the button.

The case for Chandler

Chandler will need to turn back the clock if he wants to pull off the massive upset, to leverage his D1 wrestling background and BJJ black belt to turn this into a grappling-heavy affair. Chandler of course has the power to KO anybody from a variety of angles. If the threat of his wrestling causes any sort of disruption to Ruffy’s rhythm and striking defence, he may just be able to do the unthinkable. 

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Josh Hokit (-450) vs. Derrick Lewis (+325)

Josh Hokit established himself as a true heavyweight contender with his win over Curtis Blaydes at UFC 327. Now the 28-year-old has a chance to truly enter the title picture with a win on a marquee stage. Opposite Hokit is the 41-year-old Lewis, who has been a staple of the UFC heavyweight division for a decade plus. With 24 of his 29 wins coming via KO “The Beast” is known for legendary power and able to end any fight as long as it’s taking place on the feet.

The case for Hokit

Hokit is a significant favourite here, and he will hold a massive advantage in athleticism and cardio here on account of his NFL background (Hokit was a practice squad member with the 49ers and Cardinals prior to his MMA career). He pushes a manic pace with 9.3 Significant Strikes per minute and 3.9 Takedowns per 15, and should ultimately be able to dictate the majority of this bout. Should this hit the ground or see the 2nd round as Lewis slows down, expect Hokit’s live price drop quickly. 

The case for Lewis

Lewis has the capability to land a fight-ending punch at any moment, but is most dangerous when his gas tank is full early in the first round. His grappling and takedown defence are both poor to say the least, but he’s avoided the issue in the past with a bull rush to begin fights that takes wrestling out of the equation. If Lewis is to win, it probably happens in the first round — and the early stages at that.

Sean O’Malley (-450) vs. Aiemann Zahabi (+325)

“Suga” Sean O’Malley did not get his wish for a title fight against Petr Yan on the White House lawn, but he will make the walk regardless in a USA vs. Canada showdown against Montreal’s Aiemann Zahabi. O’Malley bounced back from his consecutive losses to Merab Dvalishvili with a clinical win over Song Yadong in January, landing 48 Significant Strikes to Song’s 36. The streaking Zahabi has won seven straight, with three consecutive victories on home soil against (then) division staples in Pedro Munhoz, Jose Aldo and Marlon Vera. 

The case for O’Malley

One of the best strikers at bantamweight, O’Malley lands more than 6 Significant Strikes per minute on 60% Striking Accuracy. With a decent reach advantage as well, he should be able to keep this fight in his comfort zone at range. His takedown defence remains a question mark, but against a primarily stand-up opponent in Zahabi, wrestling should not play a major factor, which historically indicates an O’Malley victory is imminent. 

The case for Zahabi

While Zahabi does not have O’Malley’s striking acumen, he is an extremely tough puzzle to solve with his 69% Striking Defence rate. He’s has outstruck his opponent in his past five wins on the scorecards, so keeping O’Malley’s volume low will be critical if he wants to win. While not much of a takedown threat, Zahabi has utilized the clinch and ground strikes well in the past, particularly against the former champ Aldo. If he can make O’Malley work for every strike he lands and come into the later rounds the fresher fighter, he will have a chance to take this one on the judges’ scorecards.

Alex Pereira (-110) vs. Ciryl Gane (-110)

Alex Pereira has begun his chase for a UFC title in a record third weight class, and will take on the multiple-time title challenger Ciryl Gane for the interim Heavyweight Championship. Pereira went 6-1 in his Light Heavyweight tenure, avenging his loss to Magomed Ankalaev in March with an 80-second TKO in October. He simply blitzed the new champ from the jump and never took his foot off the gas. Gane was looking very competitive against Tom Aspinall in October before the infamous eye poke that put the undisputed champ on the shelf, and will now fight for either the interim or undisputed strap for a fifth time since 2021.

The case for Pereira

One of the best pure strikers in UFC history, it seems reasonable to expect that Pereira’s legendary power will translate to heavyweight without issue. Four of his six wins at LHW came via a KO/TKO in the first two rounds, but with the added weight he could slow down the longer this fight goes. If he’s to win, expect it to happen sooner than later in the bout.

The case for Gane

While this will be unfamiliar territory for Pereira, Gane is accustomed to prepping for five-round fights at heavyweight. What he lacks in power he makes up for in defence, and if Pereira takes some time to adjust to the new setting it will Gane to get in a stronger rhythm. Absorbing just 2.3 Significant Strikes per minute, he will need to leverage a potential cardio advantage and take this fight into deep waters to suppress Pereira’s power. If this fight goes the full 25 minutes, I would expect Gane to be the one getting his hand raised. 

Ilia Topuria (-500) vs. Justin Gaethje (+350)

Spoken into existence by “El Matador” himself, Ilia Topuria is arguably the new face of the UFC. He’ll have a chance to make a statement on the biggest stage of his career when he’s the final fighter to make the walk on Sunday night.

The 29-year-old has knocked out three straight legends in Alexander Volkanovski, Max Holloway and Chjarles Oliveira. Now he has can add another notch to his belt against “The Highlight” Justin Gaethje. The 37-year-old defeated Paddy Pimblett in January to capture his second interim lightweight title, and now has a third shot at undisputed gold.

Gaethje has been a perennial contender at 155 since joining the UFC in 2017, and in his 32 career fights he’s lost to only the best of the best. As one of the biggest underdogs on the card it expects to be an uphill battle for Gaethje to take Topuria’s 0 and pull off the upset on the White House lawn.

The case for Topuria

One of the most well-rounded fighters ever to step foot in the Octagon, Topuria has a second-to-none combination of striking acumen, power and grappling credentials. Extremely well conditioned, he’s proven that his abilities translate into the later rounds with his 3rd Round KO of Holloway in October and the  masterclass decision win over Josh Emmett that earned him a title shot (including a rare 10-7 Round 4 on one judge’s scorecard). If Topuria simply performs as he’s capable of, it’s hard to imagine him losing this fight. His power and boxing will be an immediate problem for the older Gaethje’s chin, and his ability to take the fight to the ground will provide a significant advantage. 

The case for Gaethje

While Topuria looked immaculate against Oliveira in his first Lightweight title fight last June, we have still yet to see how he performs in the later rounds at added weight. Turning this into a long, gruelling affair will be Step 1, he won’t do well in a Round 1 brawl with both guys still at full power. Step 2 is to must keep this fight on its feet. While his takedown game was solid against Pimblett (3/3 himself, Paddy 0/5) his strength lies in his ability to fight at range, and turning this into a wrestling match will negate his reach advantage result in some unfavourable positions. If Gaethje can come into this fight with the best conditioning of his career and turn it into a 25 minute stand-up affair, he’ll absolutely have a shot. 

Feature image courtesy AP Photo/John Locher via Canadian Press Images

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